To remind you, we're talking about electrification, which are moving edge users to electricity and concurrently ensuring a larger fraction of that electricity is made from renewable sources. We talked about electrification options for the transport sector, which look very good for cars, light trucks, SUVs, which already are starting to move to electricity, but more challenging for ships, aircraft, and heavy trucks, because of the limitations of batteries, specifically the relatively low density, both of a mass and a volume basis. It's not clear that those sectors of transport, heavy trucks, aircraft, and ships, can move to electricity with existing battery technology. Battery technology is improving, but there are alternatives as well, for example, hydrogen and biofuels. Now we're going to turn to buildings. The story is simpler in some ways, that if you look at how energy is used in buildings, well; heating, lighting, cooling. Heating includes space heating and water heating, and then other miscellaneous, what we call plug loads, thing you plug in the wall. Well, some of those are already electrified. Lighting, plug loads, space cooling in almost all circumstances, there are exceptions, already run on electricity. How about space heating? How about water heating? Well, there is a commercially available proven cost-effective technology called a heat pump that can do this. If for example, you're in a building, the water is heated with natural gas, or the space heating is provided by an oil-burning furnace, one can switch to electric heat pump. Now, not always a good idea right now under current cost is only depends on the capital cost and the installation costs, and the relative cost of fuels, but from a technological long-term perspective that technology exists. Heat pumps are widely available, they're proven, they're effective, they're getting better every year from a technological perspective. Just maybe 5,10 years ago, they didn't work very well in low-temperature settings, at least the dominant technology called an air source heat pump didn't work all that well when it got really cold out significantly below zero C, but that's improving as well. That technology does exist. Cooking. Some parts of the world cook with natural gas, some with propane, some with biofuels. Well, there's a straightforward alternative to all those, electric resistance heating with cooking, that can be done. That's an easy low-cost technology. In the past, it's not been popular because it's been expensive. That needs to be considered, but there is a technology to do that. One can cook with electric resistance heating, it's technically straightforward and quite simple. To summarize, technologies to fully electrify buildings are commercially available and in many cases cost-competitive. There's an interesting policy response to that, to the new interested in electrification. A handful, not many, but a handful of cities in the US have actually banned natural gas lines from their buildings. There are rules in a small number of cities say, if you are building a new building you cannot provide natural gas. You have to use only electricity in that building. I might not be surprised to hear that that's controversial. Not many cities are doing that. There's been a lot of push-back from a policy level. Some states have looked into banning their own cities from doing this. The natural gas industry is of course concerned about this. I wouldn't predict this as a policy tool for which there is growing support, but it is an indication of the state of the technology that it is technologically feasible and in many cases cost-effective to fully electrified new buildings. Retrofitted old buildings, more expensive, not as clear what economics are, but technologically again, one can do that. Electrification is a very promising path forward for buildings. Finally, on industry, it's more complex. Some industrial processes use fossil fuels not only to provide energy but as an input to production or part of the process itself. For example, coal is used to produce coke, which is part of the input to steel production, not just an energy source but a materials source. Natural gas is used to produce fertilizer. It's not used just as an energy sense, but as hydrogen source in essence to make fertilizer. Petrochemicals by their very name, they are chemicals made from petroleum. But you can electrify that because you need the petroleum itself. Those processes don't lend themselves with electrification, because you can't substitute electricity for an actual chemical source. In some small cases, there are alternatives. For example, the steel industry has an alternative production process called an electric arc furnace, but they're very limited. Electric arc furnaces are mostly used, for example, for recycled steel. The electrification story within industry is more challenging. If you look at it from a carbon dioxide emissions perspective, a lot of the CO_2 emissions come from more called process, associated with the process of producing something itself, rather than with the energy to make the process go. Cement production is a classic example. In summary, electrification can reduce but not eliminate carbon dioxide emissions in industry. Electrification does have a role. Electrification will be an important tool to reduce carbon emissions industry, but it's limited. As for transport, there are alternatives that are not electrification, but other pass for carbon reduction. We talked about hydrogen, which is very promising for industry and biofuels as well can play a role. To summarize electrification, we saw this graph at the beginning of these videos notifications, but this gives you a sense of some of the numbers. It will be necessary to increase electrification, to decarbonize. Electric cars are shown here at roughly 8 million, we're on a path for 600 million. But to achieve this scenario, the Transforming Energy Scenario, TES will need over a billion electric cars by 2050. Heat pumps, some 38 million installed worldwide on a path to install 119 million by 2050, but that needs to go to 334 million by 2050. To summarize electrification, It's an essential tool for decarbonization, both moving to electricity and ensuring that electricity is made from renewables up to 86 percent that's where we need to be at 2050. But the ability or potential for different end uses to electrify varies. Buildings. There's a clear path for electrification. Transportation. Electrification looks promising for small vehicles, not so much for big vehicles. Industry. It varies entirely by the sector, and some industrial sectors like petrochemicals under current technology and understanding, electrification is not going to get us all that far. We need to look at alternatives like hydrogen and biofuels.
